– Gold futures prices ended the U.S. day session lower Thursday, in the aftermath of a bearish report from the Federal Reserve. The strong downside price action in the gold and silver markets Wednesday afternoon and then the follow-through pressure Thursday have changed the near-term technical postures in both markets from slightly bullish to slightly bearish. The big daily price change discrepancy between the gold futures and the cash markets Thursday was due to the Comex futures market officially closing before the FOMC statement was released early Wednesday afternoon. December Comex gold was last down $28.60 at $1,147.50 an ounce. The spot gold market was last down $8.10 at $1,148.00. December Comex silver was last down $0.728 at $15.565 an ounce.

The FOMC statement provided a big and bearish jolt for the precious metals markets and the rest of the raw commodity sector. The marketplace on Thursday was still digesting the results of the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy meeting. That meeting did not see FOMC members raise U.S. interest rates, but the statement afterward was deemed hawkish. The Fed downplayed world economic developments, which apparently included recent monetary policy stimulus from China and the likelihood that the European Central Bank will implement fresh stimulus in December. The FOMC statement also hinted that a U.S. rate hike still could be coming in December. Most of the marketplace did not expect the Fed to raise U.S. interest rates at this week’s meeting and expected a more dovish statement.

The U.S. dollar shot higher on the FOMC news and hit a 2.5-month high Wednesday afternoon, but about half of those gains were taken back with Thursday’s downside price action in the index. Still, the technical posture of the dollar index became more bullish with Wednesday’s rally, and that’s a bearish element for the precious metals and the raw commodity sector.

The third-quarter advance U.S. gross domestic product report was released Thursday and came in at up 1.5%, on an annual basis, which was in line with market expectations and had little impact on the markets.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer confidence index came in at -7.7 in October from -7.1 in September. This is yet another downbeat economic data point that will likely prompt the ECB to initiate more monetary stimulus soon.

Technically, December gold futures prices closed nearer the daily low and hit a three-week low today. The gold bears now have the slight overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum on their side. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,170.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,125.00. First resistance is seen at $1,156.40 and then today’s high of $1,162.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,146.80 and then at $1,140.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.5

December silver futures prices closed near the session low and hit a three-week low today. This market has made a dramatic “about face” the past two sessions. The silver market bears have gained the slight near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $16.37 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $15.00. First resistance is seen at $15.75 and then at $16.00. Next support is seen at $15.50 and then at $15.375. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.5.

December N.Y. copper closed down 405 points at 232.20 cents today. Prices closed near the session low and hit another three-week low today. Copper bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls’ next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 249.30 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of 220.25 cents. First resistance is seen at 235.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 238.10 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 231.85 cents and then at 230.00 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.0.

 

(Kitco News)

LONDON–Gold prices were higher on the London spot market Thursday, as bargains hunters bought the metal on the belief that a U.S. rate rise is now priced into this market.

The two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluded Wednesday with a statement that a rate increase was likely in December, despite market expectations of it happening in early 2016. That sent gold down by 1%. But gold got a boost on Thursday as investors bought in the belief that the rate rise is priced in and, if anything, the gold price will gain next year, analysts said.

Spot gold was up 0.4% at $1,162.70 a troy ounce in morning European trade.

Gold doesn’t offer interest, so the metal finds it difficult to compete with assets that do, like Treasurys, when interest rates rise.

“There’s a bit of bargain hunting in precious metals,” said Robin Bhar, head of metals research at Société Générale SA. “We held the $1,150 an ounce level for gold, so that prompted some early European, late Asian buying.”

Late Wednesday, the precious metal initially fell to a 10-day low of $1,152 an ounce, as the dollar soared following the Fed’s statement.

Gains in the greenback are typically bad news for dollar-denominated commodities like gold, as they grow more expensive to buy for those holding other currencies.

“The slide in the prices of gold and silver was triggered by an unexpectedly hawkish accompanying statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve and a much firmer U.S. dollar as a result,” Commerzbank AG said in a client note.

Looking ahead, market participants are now likely to continue their focus on U.S. data.

“What will have to be monitored almost daily now is U.S. domestic data,” said Mr. Bhar. “This will tell us if the economy is getting stronger…as we approach the December meeting.”

This week sees the release of the U.S. third-quarter GDP reading, while U.S. nonfarm payrolls are due next week.

Among the other precious metals, spot silver was up 0.2% at $15.947 an ounce, spot platinum was down 0.4% at $ 994.80 an ounce and spot palladium was down 0.4% at $667.0 an ounce.

-Write to Ese Erheriene at ese.erheriene@wsj.com

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/gold-prices-rise-on-bargain-hunting-20151029-00730#ixzz3q09pkbR9

Tuesday October 27, 2015 14:28
– As gold demand rose in the third quarter of the year, particularly with higher coin and bar sales as well as official-sector buying, the latest data from Thomson Reuters GFMS shows that analysts expect prices to fall back this year.

According to GFMS’ Gold Survey 2015 Q3 update, released Tuesday, gold demand rose 7% in Q3.

However, GFMS’ senior precious metals analyst, Saida Litosh, said in a webinar held Tuesday afternoon that gold prices are expected to fall back below $1,100 an ounce.

“Having said that, gold may draw some support from a seasonal pick-up in physical demand,” she noted, adding that when prices fall below $1,100, this may trigger some additional fresh interest in the yellow metal.

GFMSurgey
According to Litosh, markets continue to be “tortured” by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s lack of direction on rate normalization. She added that GFMS does not expect the Fed to raise interest rates this year.

Although Litosh expects gold’s initial reaction to a rate hike to be negative, she said the first announcement will finally bring clarity to the market and may trigger investors to reassess their portfolios, which could boost gold.

“We expect the gold price to be average $1,200 an ounce in 2016,” she said.

Looking more closely at the demand side, the data showed that both retail investment and official-sector demand rose in Q3.

On the retail side, India, China and Germany accounted for about 26 tonnes of additional retail buying in the third quarter, with the three top consumers experiencing a buying surge of 30%, 26% and 19%, respectively.

Official-sector demand rose by 13% year over year to about 132 tonnes in Q3, with GFMS expecting Russia to continue on the purchasing track.

“Russia is on course to be largest official purchaser this year,” said Ross Strachan, metals demand manager for the firm, during the webinar Tuesday.

Global gold coin demand grew by 110% quarter over quarter, and 139% year over year, Strachan noted, adding that total sales reached 48 tonnes, the highest sales since Q2 of 2010.

Erica Rannestad, senior precious metals analyst, said it is interesting to look at the longer-term trends in gold and silver coin sales.

While gold coin sales rose in Q3, the overall trend in demand has been trending lower since 2008.

“Silver on the other hand, had strong growth this last quarter [and] the trend has been opposite with an upward trend for several years,” she said during the webinar.

According to Rannestad, the prevailing reason for this divergence between gold and silver coin sales is the rising gold to silver ratio.

“Silver is cheaper relative gold,” she said, adding that investors view silver as a real bargain opportunity.

The main reasons for a big rise in coin sales last quarter, according to Rannestad, is mainly due to the declining prices seen in June and July, as well as because of the perceived shortage by investors as a result of the U.S. Mint’s halt in sales in July.

Looking at the supply side, GFMS’ senior mining analyst, Jeanette Tourney, said global mine supply is expected to peak in 2015.

“Beyond this year, mine production will begin to contract. We don’t think there will be sufficient new production,” she said.

(Kitco News)

– Gold prices ended the U.S. day session near unchanged in quieter trading Tuesday. Traders and investors were extra cautious ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s statement from the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee. December Comex gold was last down $0.20 at $1,166.00 an ounce. December Comex silver was last down $0.04 at $15.825 an ounce.

The FOMC monetary policy meeting began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon. Most do not expect the Fed to raise U.S. interest rates at this week’s meeting. In fact, recent downbeat world economic data has much of the marketplace thinking the Fed will not move to raise interest rates at its December meeting, either.

Nymex crude oil futures fell to a two-month low of $42.58 a barrel Tuesday. Crude prices have dropped by over $8.00 a barrel the past three weeks. The slumping oil market has injected new worries into the marketplace, including world stock markets, due to the specter of price deflation. That’s also a bearish element for the precious metals.

The other key outside market was in a slightly bearish posture for the metals, too, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer in afternoon trading.

European stock markets were weaker Tuesday, in part due to worries about the recent drop in crude oil prices. Asian stock markets were mixed Tuesday, with China’s Shanghai stock index slightly higher and Japan’s Nikkei stock index weaker. Focus in Asia is on this week’s China Communist Party economic planning meeting, which began Monday and ends Thursday. It is expected the meeting will result in a new five-year economic plan for China.

The world is watching with interest as a U.S. Navy warship, including warplanes protecting it, sail in international waters near artificial islands created by China in the South China Sea. The move by the U.S. military is provocative, even if it is within its rights as determined by international maritime law.

U.S. economic data released Tuesday was mostly downbeat but had little impact on the gold and silver markets.

Technically, December gold futures prices closed near mid-range. The gold bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show more power soon to keep it. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the October high of $1,191.70. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,150.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,169.60 and then $1,175.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $1,158.60 and then at $1,156.40. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5

December silver futures prices closed near mid-range. The silver market bulls still have the slight near-term technical advantage but need to show more power soon to keep it. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $16.195 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $15.37. First resistance is seen at $16.00 and then at $16.195. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $15.61 and then at $15.50. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5.

December N.Y. copper closed up 35 points at 236.10 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Mild short covering in a bear market was featured. Copper bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls’ next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 249.30 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of 220.25 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 238.00 cents and then at 240.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 233.05 cents and then at 230.00 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.5.

(Kitco News)

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Gold is slightly lower after the US dollar soared to its highest level in more than two months and US equities raced higher following China’s easing of monetary policy for the sixth time in a year, reviving expectations of a US rate hike.

Bullion vaulted more than per cent higher to an intraday high of $US1,180 per ounce in early New York trading immediately after Beijing announced a surprise interest rate cut on Friday.